By John O’Connell
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has already had many impacts on the world. To the casual observer, those impacts may be limited to the West, particularly Europe, which relies heavily on imported gas from Russia to sustain energy-intensive economies and high standards of living. This has led to a dramatic rise in the costs of energy in Europe particularly – reaching price levels ten times that of the average for the last decade. The U.S. has fared better, though gas prices also rose to record highs. From a more global perspective, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is detrimental to global security and, more importantly, global health. Ukraine and Russia are two of the world's top global food exporters, being located on some of the most fertile land on the planet. This means that the reduced exports of these goods from either country, following the ongoing war in Ukraine and subsequent sanctioning of the Russian economy, threaten global food security to a significant degree. Being the first and fifth largest grain exporters respectively, Russia has $7.3 billion in annual wheat exports, or 13.1% of the global total, while Ukraine exports $4.7 billion worth in wheat, or 8.5% of the global total. As a result of the war, the conflict has also resulted in trade disruptions which have had dire consequences for countries that are dependent on food exports from both nations, particularly conflict zones in the Middle East and North Africa like Ethiopia and Yemen.
How the War Compounds Global Food Insecurity
It is estimated that the food grown in Ukraine feeds roughly 400 million people a year. As the war continues to rage, the risk of mass starvation continues to grow while Russia attempts to strangle Ukrainian exports. In addition, Russian government officials have suggested withholding food exports to nations that openly oppose the Russian invasion to reduce diplomatic outcry against the war in a bid to pressure them from taking action, economically or diplomatically, against Russia. These political games played by the Kremlin have severe consequences outside of Ukraine; millions more are placed at risk because of their actions. Quick and adaptable policy action is needed to prevent the devastating war in Europe from turning into a global humanitarian tragedy that reverses the progress made to end global hunger.
Ukraine roughly exports 6 million tons of wheat to global markets every month, and to many regions of the world including the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. Nations that rely the most on Ukrainian (and Russian) grain are Egypt, Ethiopia, Lebanon, Palestine, and Yemen. Most of the wheat is traded via maritime trade-routes crossing the Black Sea, and, even during wartime, only 15-20% is exported through other methods like rail and truck. This overreliance on maritime commerce forces any continuation of grain exports during the war to be reliant on Ukrainian cooperation with Russia due to their naval superiority in the Black Sea. Therefore, the uncertainty of Ukrainian exports has caused global wheat prices to soar to historic highs. Supply shocks only compound the situation faced by 44 million people, who grapple with starvation as well as the additional 800 million people who remain food insecure.
As the rapid-paced fighting at the start of the war in the spring faded away to a war of attrition, concerns turned to the Ukrainian food export industry. Despite the success of the Ukrainian military in deterring the Russian navy from densely populated areas, the war has degenerated into a stalemate as no real major territorial changes have occurred since 2022. In turn, this interrupts Ukraine from effectively exporting its goods out of its major ports. Some of those major ports, like Mariupol, were occupied by Russia, and the ships there, full of food exports, were seized by the occupying forces. Russia then attempted to sell the stolen grain itself to profit and bypass sanctions to the global market. Additional attempts made by Russia to sell Ukrainian grain have also been documented.
Despite Russia being the dominant power in this situation, exports of wheat from Russia have also fallen. This is because of the inability of Russia to access payment systems like SWIFT, an international payment messaging system. Russia was removed from SWIFT in February 2022 by the U.S., EU, Canada, and UK to economically isolate Russia from the global community in an effort to end the war through economic means. This has resulted in less grain being exported, creating concerns in countries that previously served as primary importers of Russian grain, like Egypt, Bangladesh, and Nigeria.
Developments in the Conflict Regarding Trade
As it became apparent that the conflict was likely to continue for some time, calls to draft a deal to end Russian blockades of Ukrainian exports were made to relieve food security in countries reliant on Ukrainian grain exports. In July 2022, this led Turkey to broker an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to restore prior food export levels. The deal included provisions to allow for shipments of grain out of the country, but it explicitly stated weapon shipments would not be tolerated. Turkey would inspect the ships as they traveled out of the Black Sea on route to their destinations. While the deal briefly lapsed when Russia pulled out in October 2022, due to Ukrainian attacks on the Russian Black Sea fleet; it rejoined in early November.
Concerns over the continuation of the agreement continue to exist, as Russia is hesitant to renew it. Though the agreement is projected to be renewed in March 2023, Russian officials have raised doubts ahead of the deadline. Russia wants restrictions on their own exports removed and has stated that most of the grain exported from Ukraine is going to wealthy nations (China, Spain and Turkey receive the most grain, but Turkey often re-exports it to nations like Sudan and Iraq). Russia is currently not prevented from exporting foodstuffs such as grain out of its borders, but exclusion from international finance systems and sanctions from former major trading partners has reduced its exports. President Zelenskyy of Ukraine and UN Secretary-General Guterres have called for the deal to be automatically renewed and that it remains essential to provide access to food for millions.
What the Future Holds and Recommendations
As shown by its brief withdrawal, Russian hesitation to remain in the grain deal still exists, and the war continues to put millions of people in a state of food insecurity. Thus, more concrete and adaptable solutions are needed to secure food supplies from Ukraine. First, improvements in the infrastructure in Europe need to be undertaken for land and river transportation of Ukrainian grain. While more expensive than traditional export by sea, it is a safer route in the event of a Russian withdrawal from the current agreement. Turkey, as a key arbitrator, should continue to work to keep the deal in place. As a NATO member that controls the geographically significant Bosporus Strait that Russia relies on for its own maritime trade, Turkey is in a unique position to be able to facilitate continued negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
In the long term, the UN and other international organizations should work to reduce reliance on specific countries for food goods. While Ukraine is a partner of Western countries like the U.S., heavy reliance on two countries at war is, likely, disastrous for the global grain supply. Funding should be encouraged for homegrown agricultural programs, particularly in countries with high populations facing food insecurity. This would allow for a global food supply less at risk of supply shocks due to events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the current conflict in Europe, and, ultimately, it could bring millions more out of food insecurity, ending this humanitarian issue once and for all.
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