By Veronica Marcone
The Public’s Unanswered Question
Over the last year, the United States has been critically involved in sending aid to Ukraine to defend itself against Russia. Previously, the US had focused primarily on protecting and equipping Taiwan against a potential Chinese invasion. Logically, many in the IR field wonder whether aiding one prevents the US from properly supporting the other. This is the case made by The Heritage Foundation Fellow Alexander Velez-Green, who presses on the idea that Ukraine’s requested/needed equipment might risk the United State’s attempt to protect Taiwan, as the latter should be prioritized, while Ukraine should depend more on Europe. This is not only misleading, but could also damage Washington’s effort to protect Taiwan.
The Invasion of Ukraine
On February 24th, 2022 Russia began the invasion of its Ukrainian neighbor through the Donbas region. A majority of Western countries considered this a violation of sovereignty and the right to self-determination. Internationally, Russia’s actions were widely recognized as illegitimate and unsolicited attacks that violated human rights.
The US has been indirectly, yet heavily, involved in this war, avoiding military engagement that would include the deployment of troops to Ukraine. American involvement has taken various forms: sanctioning Russian banks, officials and oligarchs, sending economic and military aid, restricting dollar transactions and exports between Russia and the US, and increasing NATO deployments in Europe. Since the start of the war, the US government has spent a total of $113 billion on Ukraine, $23 billion of which were allocated to the European Command (EUCOM) to increase personnel by 20,000 troops, reaching a total of 100,000.
American Involvement in the Indo-Pacific
In recent years, the US has also increased its involvement in the Indo-Pacific, due to the fact that its main competitor, China, has been pursuing imperialistic goals - particularly concerning China's relationship with Taiwan, an island off the coast of China. Though Taiwan declares itself independent from the mainland, China continues to consider the island a province and plans for reunification using all means necessary. The United States has both economic and geopolitical interests tied to this small island. Taiwan is known for its export of semiconductors and has a strong high-tech industry, both of which are critical for the US economy. It is also worth noting that Taiwan is currently the 10th largest US trading partner. Politically, if the US allowed Taiwan to be taken over by China, it would severely fall short of upholding its promises to protect democracy, and lose international credibility and as a leading figure in its ongoing influential and ideological battle with China. To avoid this, the US has authorized $2 billion in Foreign Military Sales (FMS) on Taiwan’s military aid in Fiscal Year 2023 alone. Purely speaking from a US foreign policy standpoint, an argument can be easily made that Taiwan is more important to the US than Ukraine is. President Biden himself believes focusing on Taiwan to be fundamental for maintaining global influence and power.
Unfounded Worries
It is important to mention the backlog in the delivery of defense equipment through FMS both to Taiwan and Ukraine, which affects both their capabilities to protect themselves. The question is: does the delivery of equipment to one country take away from the others’ requested equipment?
Taiwan is currently facing around $14 billion of FMS backlog, hindering the country’s ability to ‘porcupine’ itself. Yet, this backlog was first caused by the pandemic, which slowed down the supply chain and blocked the Defense Industrial Base (DIB) from acquiring the necessary material to build defense systems. Some of the weapons that are a part of Taiwan’s backlog are currently being sent to Ukraine—harpoon anti-ship missiles, stinger anti-aircraft missiles and high mobility artillery rocket systems are just some examples. However, this should not necessarily be considered an obstacle that hinders the United States ability to arm Taiwan— at least for now. Focusing on overlapping equipment that both countries need assumes that most of the reason for the current backlog is Ukraine. Though the delays are likely caused by internal issues, the tangential relationship between US aid for Ukraine and Taiwan can easily influence many to believe they are competing for the same exact equipment. However, directing the equipment to a sole country and overlooking the other will not fix any backlog. War on the Rocks clearly outlines the sources of equipment sent to both countries—Taiwan purchases through FMS, while Ukraine mostly receives excess US stockpiles. Another key difference to note is that Taiwan and Ukraine also necessitate different kinds of systems. Taiwan’s defense is highly maritime based, expecting an attack from its coasts, whereas Ukraine is looking for more ground-based systems to defend itself from Russia. Thus, neither currently fights the other for the acquisition of American equipment.
This might become a risk over time, though, as the US may slowly run out of excess defense stockpiles. This risk tends to be often overstated, but it should not be a reason for worry. The US is investing exponentially more on the Indopacific command (INDOPACOM) procurement than on EUCOM procurement in Fiscal year 2024. The US will invest $333 million and $114.9 million for INDOPACOM and EUCOM. Moreover, Ukraine should not take all of the blame for “distracting” the US. Rather, it is the delicate political environment the US currently faces, with a passive administration that is slowing down any decision making regarding the two countries in need.
Defending Ukraine Will Help the US Protect Taiwan
There are plenty of reasons why US defense in Taiwan will benefit from assisting Ukraine. For starters, the potential for military research and development in Ukraine is immeasurable; the US could use the battleground to test new military tools and equipment. This is because, in recent years, the US has not been extensively involved in any one place— especially against such a modern armed adversary like Russia. The US has already taken advantage of this, as it sent a shipment of experimental drones to support Ukraine. Alongside this aid, the US should consider comparing the various battlefield strategies occurring on the ground, in the air, and along water sources. This way, the US can study which equipment works best with different warfare strategies and can be useful information in a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
A strong support in Ukraine will also ensure international credibility; allies will be reassured that the US will have their backs when worse comes to worse. Ukraine aid will ensure that China is deterred from attacking, since the US will potentially come to Taiwan’s protection. This scenario will make the decision of a Chinese attack dwindle, as China is aware of American military capabilities. The possible encounter with the US military would cost China a fortune and result in unaccountable losses. This is the reason why they have not yet decided to attack. Despite having exponential military development in recent years, it is still not enough to be on par with the US military titan.
In addition to that, the Biden administration can multitask and assist both countries to push the Defense Industrial Base to speed up its FMS. This is an opportunity for the DIB to properly address the reasons for the backlog and attempt to fix it, allowing for the effective sale of equipment on all fronts.
There is little to no choice looking into the future either. The Washington Post explained that if we pulled our aid out of Ukraine now, it would worsen the situation in Europe, making US intervention even more costly, yet necessary. Thus, it is in the United States’ interests to continue aiding Ukraine; the sooner the war ends, the sooner the attention can be shifted back to solely INDOPACOM.
A Ukrainian victory would lead to a weaker Russia that is unable to support its allies. As their biggest ally, China would suffer indirect consequences, receiving potentially little to no support from Russia for an invasion of Taiwan. The Washington Post claims that this would abate the relationship between the two and cause Xi Jin Ping to lose credibility for having “backed a loser”.
In the scenario of a strong partisan disagreement, the US could consider diminishing aid and avoid leaving Ukraine altogether for the reasons stated above. This is possible because if military attention is needed elsewhere, Ukraine will still receive assistance from Europe. This option should only be considered, however, if no bipartisan agreement is reached.
Conclusion
All things considered, a US presence in Ukraine is not only useful but fundamental for the US to defend Taiwan in the near future. This allows weapons and strategies to be developed, alliances and political influence to be strengthened, China to be deterred with proof of US commitment, and its strongest ally to be weakened.
Comments