By. Brodie Gardner
DOI: 10.57912/28551371
On February 24th, 2022, Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine, following months of Russian mobilization on its borders and years of tension following the dissolution of an association agreement between Ukraine and the European Union, when then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych was threatened by the Kremlin to discontinue talks regarding talks on the proposal.
For years, Putin had been posturing to reclaim what he believes are lands that belong to Russia, Meanwhile, Ukrainians have dealt with their land being chipped at, rising Russian nationalism, and their head of state being expelled from office.
What was supposed to be a days-long operation to overthrow the government of Ukraine, has ended up as a conflict that has gone on for nearly three years. The future of Ukraine’s sovereignty rests in its ability to temper Russian pride by exploiting the occupation of the Kursk Region in Russia and using it to reaffirm the Ukrainian position before any progress in peace negotiations can take place.
On August 6th, 2024, a surprising development occurred in the Russo-Ukrainian War: Ukraine began an incursion into the Kursk Region of Russia via a poorly defended border area. Ukraine now controls “about 500 square miles of Russian land”, territory which was mapped in a secret plan designed to divert Russian forces from being able to strike deeper into its territory.
Even though Russian military personnel knew that Ukraine was planning an offensive, they failed to report it up the chain of command despite having advanced knowledge of the plans for at least a year, an oversight that Moscow will not let happen again.
Further venturing of Ukrainian advancements could also destroy infrastructure such as bridges and roads, a strategy Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claims will help create a “buffer zone” within Russia. Unfortunately, the unexpected incursion into Kursk by Russia has been overstated by foreign policy experts. The Ukrainian incursion was an underwhelming, albeit calculated, plan that may very well hurt the Ukrainian war effort, as Russian expansion has not been heavily impeded and the cost of holding territory within enemy borders is large and a drain on troop reserves.
Recent attacks on major Ukrainian cities, such as the capital Kyiv, have not ceased. Using drones, Russia had bombarded Kyiv in the early morning hours of September 16th, although the Ukrainian Military claims it “...had shot down nearly two dozen Russian drones around Kyiv… and the Ukrainian air force said it had intercepted 53 of 56 Russian drones overnight.” Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, was also hit with attacks. Despite Russian forces having been prevented from initiating future attacks on Ukraine through short-range defensive options, it seems to be unclear as to whether or not this will last, as Russia still has many different avenues of attack against Ukrainian assets.
The Ukrainian incursion of the Kursk Region was also intended to prevent Russian troops from advancing on Eastern Ukraine, an objective that did not go to plan. It has since been announced that eastern villages such as Novohradska, twelve miles from the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, were captured by Russian forces thanks to efforts in capturing Kursk.
Reports indicate that attempts to divert Russian troops from redeploying away from strategic Ukrainian objectives have also failed. This could very well turn the incursion from an unexpected victory to a costly mistake in the eyes of the Ukrainian people if they fail to hold Kursk. The incursion seems to have been shortsighted, but it may still be possible for Ukraine to leverage its territorial gains in Russia to obtain a better position in peace negotiations within the foreseeable future. The best case scenario seems to be that the incursion into Russian territory by Ukraine may propel Russian citizens to pressure the Kremlin to move towards ending the war, as other unprotected border areas between Russia and Ukraine may exacerbate fears for national security.
“Chronicles”, known as an “Independent Russian Pollster” service, recently released a poll following the August 6th incursion in Ukraine that shows that forty-nine percent of Russians who responded support measures that would lead to a Russian troop withdrawal from battle zones to facilitate peace talks, a poll (described as being taken using a combination of “regular telephone surveys” and Focus Groups) which shows “an increase of 9 percentage points from the 40 percent who were in favor of such a move in January 2024.” Although this is one poll, taken inside of a country where the freedom of the press is very much extinct, it does signify that there is a sizable amount of the Russian population that opposes further expansion of the war in Ukraine with the possibility that the general population would be content without the Kremlin having achieved its desired outcomes. Finding support or opposition to the Russo-Ukrainian war within the confines of digital and physical protesting is no doubt a challenge with anti-free speech laws being passed to minimize opposition forces within the country protesting Putin’s leadership and military offensives.
This analysis does not argue against the Ukrainian government holding its ground and obtaining all that can be reclaimed from its lands. There is concern from the author for retreating from the Ukrainian-controlled portions of Kursk, even if it was a less-than-practical method of deterring Russian advances. As Ukrainian offensive measures continuously bombard Russia, we may find that the latter will tire, and seek to position itself as wanting to enter negotiations for peace in a war that is burning its money and manpower. Ukraine needs leverage now more than ever, and it must be sure that it can hold what they have taken from Russia.
Moving into 2025, Ukraine must aggressively bargain its Russian territory holdings in future peace negotiations. It is not only an embarrassment to the Russian government that its territory was lost in a conflict that was expected to last no more than a few days, but, also a bargaining chip that the Ukrainians must lobby hard on.
As Ukraine would need to focus on restarting economic activity during a post-war economy, especially if the Russian-occupied southern coast of Ukraine is on the table, the Zelenskyy administration could use Kursk as a vehicle for Russia to cede control of port cities like Berdiansk and Mariupol. The two towns have been economically impeded by Russian antagonizing through the blocking of maritime trade through the Sea of Azov for years, long before Russian forces captured them in the first half of 2022. To add onto this agreement, security assurances of free and friendly commerce in the Sea of Azov by independent monitors could help bolster Ukraine’s long-term financial security.
It is not only in the interest of Ukraine to hold firm at the negotiating table but for all of the free world, which needs a victory against the perils of hawkish nationalism, which knows no bounds or borders. Ukraine needs to prioritize rebuilding its economic strength first and foremost against an imperialist Russia that won’t quit, so President Zelenskyy securing sound and verifiable economic concessions can give Ukraine a leg up following a volatile war and a chance to prevent any further government instability.
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