By: Michael Vamvakitis
DOI: 10.57912/28063334
After being elected in February of 2024, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, as of October 20th, is sworn in and taking up the mantle from his predecessor, Joko Widodo. Subianto is expected to reflect a more assertive stance in navigating Indonesia’s position in the U.S.-China rivalry. Subianto will strengthen Indonesia’s strategic autonomy and enhance its economic influence by focusing on privatization and robust trade agreements on manufacturing natural resources that fit with the ESG sector international actors. Subianto’s view of having Indonesia be a leading global economic player is only possible if Subianto proactively participates in international markets and investment opportunities. Subianto’s rise of power, however, poses concerns about Indonesia’s democracy since his consolidation of power has allowed executive dominance in Indonesia, which erodes Indonesia’s democratic institutions, norms, and functions.
His extensive background is essential to understanding how Subianto rose to power and the tribulations of getting there.Prabowo Subianto Djojohadikusumo has a long history of serving in the Indonesian military but was removed when Suharto, the second president of Indonesia, resigned in 1998 due to his authoritarian and kleptocratic government that ledIndonesia to massive economic problems and political instability, such as riots. Subianto is also known for his controversial role in the military, with his involvement in the East Timor Genocide in the 90s; killing communists in Suharto’s early rule; and kidnapping and curbing pro-democracy protestors against Suharto’s rule in 1998, amongst other controversies he has. Subianto comes from an aristocratic background. His father, Sumitro Djojohadikusumo, was a key economist and statesman in the Sukarno and Suharto administrations who industrialized Indonesia’s production sectors while having a mixed-neoliberal economic approach that made diversification and promotion of capitalistic economic activities possible. His grandfather, Margono Djojohadikusumo, was an economist and founder of Bank Negara Indonesia, Indonesia's first state-owned bank, that contributed to setting up many government-owned businesses to establish Indonesia’s sovereignty against Dutch colonial rule. Subianto’s family has close ties with Suharto, his party Gerindra (a right-wing party that is an opponent of Widodo’s dominant left-leaning party called the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle), the Indonesian military, and influential natural resources conglomerates that control Indonesia’s economy, he would easily win the presidency, right?
Prabowo Subianto hasn’t been able to win any “rigged elections”, as he claims, for the presidency in the past decade and a half. This is due to Joko Widodo’s party dominating Indonesia’s politics since 2014, amidst Subianto’s track record of controversies in his military years. Subianto, being a pragmatist and opportunist, has gained political followers that have created riots and political unrest towards Joko Widodo’s administration for a decade. With that in mind, Widodo dismissed his defense minister in 2019 and appointed Subianto to the post hoping to appease the popular general's supporters before the 2024 elections. His new position enabled him to have a close relationship with Widodo and be Widodo’s puppet by Indonesian political experts, allowing Subianto to control all Indonesian parties and create a big tent alliance within the Indonesian government during the 2024 election. This was only made possible because of Widodo and his son Gibran Rakabuming Raka, who, as vice president, influenced Subianto to maintain and secure Widodo’s policies and political dynasty under Subianto's administration.
Prabowo Subianto’s approach as president diverges moderately from Joko Widodo's, focusing more on domestic economic growth and being diplomatically ambitious. In doing so, Indonesia can proactively underscore and take chargeof the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)’s agenda regionally and globally and the charter’s main objectives. ASEAN charter’s objectives like enhancing market economic trade, maintaining peace, and the rule of law through good governance, and promoting ASEAN’s cultural and social values are important to Subianto. Subianto will continue to bolster Indonesia’s defense capabilities and increase its military and economic presence in Southeast Asia. Subianto’s perspective from his strongman stance will importantly highlight disputable areas of the South China Seacloser to Indonesia's maritime zone claimed partly by China, where Subianto should press harder against Chinese encroachment. China's activities, such as building artificial islands that set up military bases and extract oil, pose challenges to Indonesia’s sovereignty, such as the Natuna Islands acting as Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone.
Like most leaders of Asian countries, Subianto will continue carrying out Indonesia’s non-aligned foreign policy by maintaining a harmonious relationship with the U.S. and China. On the one hand, China is Indonesia’s primary investor in major partnerships, such as infrastructure, three coal-fired and hydropower power plants, and six industrial complex projects. Nickel production is essential for electric vehicles, components, and electronics to reinforce stainless steel for military and high technological capabilities. Called the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, Channel News Asia reports that IMIP is backed by major Chinese companies such as Shanghai Decent Investment, a subsidiary of one of the world’s largest stainless steel producers, Tsingshan. Tsingshan says it wants American companies to contribute and be part of one of the first industrial nickel processing complexes since companies like Australia, Japan, and even India have started their commitments in IMIP this year. On the other hand, Subianto has sparked interest in strengthening defense ties with the U.S. to keep counterbalancing China, especially making and developing more military partnerships and joint exercises as expressed on November 14th with the U.S. Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin. One such important partnership with the U.S. is the Super Garuda Shield, a two-week joint military exercise with the U.S. and Indonesian Army, which briefedSubianto’s recent visit with President Biden in the White House on November 14th and is being expanded into including more troops from different regions in the world and more technological and cyber exercises.
Being deemed as one of the most significant military exercises in the Indo-Pacific and Indonesia having a lot of military engagements with the U.S., Subianto will most likely want to expand defense ties with the U.S. and its Western allies only as China’s military relations are very underdeveloped. This could suggest that U.S. engagement and resources are needed for Indonesia’s security and sovereignty, like expanding military assistance in arms sales and capacity-building programs, deepening and creating more strategic partnerships, and more economic support in infrastructure and vehicles to counter external influence and secure Indonesia’s territory in the South China Sea. Prabowo Subianto’s relationship with both nations remains complex and neutral, as he seeks to avoid only aligning with one side while ensuring opportunities and benefits for both powers. Subianto must also maintain patience and use calculated risk to respond to potential threats and opportunities to Indonesia’s economic and strategic growth in Southeast Asia, which isn’t entirely deemed aggressive towards any nation.
Mentioning the maintenance of leadership in Southeast Asia, Subianto may engage in active foreign outreach for ASEAN towards combining more global issues and frameworks into ASEAN, like tackling the Myanmar Civil War and Russia-Ukraine War to signaling ASEAN countries towards being a part of BRICS as an alternative from uncertain U.S. economic policies in the Indo-Pacific. For one, Subianto may push for more diversification of security and defense partnerships that maintain neutrality with both Indonesia and its partners, having that experience as Minister of Defense under Joko Widodo’s administration. While his approach is unorthodox, Prabowo Subianto can actively elevate Indonesia’s standing in global forums by addressing ASEAN’s problems and values.
Ultimately, Prabowo Subianto is a man of great vision who has started reigniting Indonesia’s role in Southeast Asia, where he wants “one thousand friends are too few, one enemy is too many”. With Subianto’s view of a new dominant Indonesia, he now envisions a more active and resilient Indonesia that can leverage its strategic geographical position and growing economy to cooperate while safeguarding its sovereignty and others amidst global power dynamics and dilemmas. Nevertheless, whether this approach will enhance, or complicate Indonesia’s foreign relations remains to be seen. Subianto must articulate and meticulously plan his foreign policy objectives to balance Indonesia’s and Southeast Asia’s power dynamics while not infringing on a nation’s sovereignty and power. As the new President of Indonesia, he has time to learn and develop as a head of state while maintaining his background and experience in the military. If you are his enemy, Subianto will not hesitate to use force or find ways to feed into his appetite for power. He would instead establish more friendly and active foreign relations that contribute to everybody and show Indonesia’s image and prominence to Southeast Asia and the world.
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