By: Max Okamura
DOI: 10.57912/28426583
As politicians continue to polarize the issue of migration, an understanding of how migration contributes to both society and the economy is vital. Turkey is a one-of-a-kind place to analyze the effect of migration, as it houses the most refugees in the world. Part of this can be attributed to the Syrian Civil War, which started in 2011. Currently, Turkey is home to around 2,900,000 Syrian refugees. The rapid influx and exodus of refugees could not have come at a more controversial time as Turkey is suffering its worst economic crisis of the century and the Syrian refugee count was at an all time high. The Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is looking for solutions to migratory and financial problems in the country. However, the solution may lie in the intersection of the two. Although it may be politically unpopular, Turkey must retain top talent, encourage refugee innovation, and allow incoming migrants to fill labor gaps to revive their struggling economy.
The refugee and migration crisis in Turkey is not only a domestic problem but a significant concern for the European Union, United States, and Middle Eastern and Gulf countries, as well as for international organizations like the United Nations. Great powers are interested in Turkish labor migration for a variety of reasons; some include labor demands, political tension, family reunification, and human rights concerns. Developmental advances in the Turkish economy would increase global trade and international investment, and encourage solutions for other struggling regional economies. An Erdogan administration accepting and promoting international cooperation will also de-escalate East-West tensions. A problem-solving and integration approach to labor migration could reverse the widespread politicization and marginalization of migrant communities. The economic and labor migration concerns in Turkey may seem like an isolated problem, but they have global ramifications.
Turkey is steadily losing its most skilled workers as more professionals make the decision to build their lives abroad. While Dual Labor Market Theory often explains the migration of low-skill laborers—viewing workers from developing nations as an endless and replaceable resource—it doesn’t fully capture what’s happening with Turkey’s high-skill migrants. Instead, theories similar to Migrant Networks and Push/Pull Migration provide better insight. Turkish workers are making thoughtful decisions based on factors like political corruption, economic instability, limited professional opportunities, and inadequate healthcare. For many, the conclusion is clear: the opportunities abroad, especially in Europe, far surpass what they can hope to achieve at home. This process is reinforced by the openness of destination countries to high-skill workers and the support of family or professional networks already established there. Together, these forces create a powerful pull, making emigration an obvious and strategic choice for Turkey’s brightest minds.
High-skilled migrants leaving the country are hurting the Turkish economy on a short and long-term scale. In the short term, leaders in healthcare, information technology, engineering, academia, business, finance, and the creative arts are leaving Turkey and creating significant labor market gaps in high-demand essential fields. Aysit Tansel, an economics researcher, and Pinar Yasar, a senior government official in Turkey’s Department of State Planning, estimated the impact and dynamic multipliers indicate that impact of remittances on consumption, imports, and income are all positive. This argument claims that high-skill migration could benefit the Turkish economy by generating remittances, the seemingly only effective form of developmental aid. Yet, according to the World Bank, remittances are decreasing and only produce 0.1% of Turkey's GDP. The failure of remittances can be attributed to two main reasons. First, when high-skilled immigrants move to destination countries for economic opportunity, it incentivizes them to bring their entire family as education, healthcare, and economic opportunity improve significantly elsewhere. When this happens, there's no reason to send remittances back to Turkey because no family will be there. Second, remittances in Turkey are ineffective because of the ongoing economic crisis. Turkish economic issues began in 2018 and have developed into a crisis. Since 2021, the lira, the Turkish currency, has reached inflation rates up to 80%, interest rates are at 42.5%, over half of the country is earning at or below the minimum wage of $577 per month, and external debt is over 50% of the GDP. To repair the Turkish economy, these high-skilled workers must be incentivized to stay in Turkey, not emigrate. By maintaining these industry leading professionals, Turkey can maintain critical industries, build the necessary infrastructure for development, foster economic growth, and reduce brain drain.
Although high-skill immigrants play a large part in the economic makeup of Turkey, the majority of migrants and refugees in Turkey are working as low-skilled laborers. This group is the country's backbone, often willing to do the lowest-paid and most dangerous jobs. Not only do refugees (typically Syrian refugees) accept the worst working conditions, but they also allow native workers to climb the professional ladder. Sehim Tumen, a senior economist at Amazon, found in his 2016 study on The Economic Impact that Syrian Refugees Have on Host Countries that natives not only have lower chances of finding an informal job but also higher chances of finding a formal one due to the increase in the provision of public services caused by the arrival of the refugees. Tumen also found that the goods produced by informal workers showcased a decline in their prices, which could slow current hyperinflation. This demonstrates that low-skill laborers create positive change for struggling economies and help native workers in difficult economic situations.
Migrants and refugees make essential contributions to filling labor market gaps and funding public services. This is overlooked by politicians all over the world who deem migrants as public service dependent and bad for local economies. Turkey is experiencing very harsh anti-immigration rhetoric from Erdogan, despite the recent economic downturn. Recent data shows that Turkey needs migrants to resolve an evolving issue. Turkey’s fertility rate stands at 1.51, much lower than the necessary 2.1 to maintain population. This trend signifies a shrinking workforce, as older workers retire faster than young native workers can replace them. Consequently, Turkey faces critical labor shortages in an already struggling economy—gaps that urgently need to be filled. By bringing in migrants Turkey can address these shortages by stabilizing the aging workforce, ensuring businesses and industries continue to function. Additionally, legal migrants will pay taxes, which is crucial for funding vital social programs such as social security, healthcare, and housing assistance. These programs, in turn, enhance the quality of life for everyone in the country. By meeting these pressing economic needs, migrants are instrumental in securing Turkey’s long-term economic stability and prosperity.
A second misconception is that refugees are taking jobs from native-born citizens. In reality, refugees are bringing entrepreneurship and innovative spirits into slowing economies. According to the World Economic Forum, Syrians have been active entrepreneurs in Turkey, starting over 10,000 registered businesses. Innovative refugees are beneficial for any party involved as they promote economic growth, allow personal management, and encourage entrepreneurial futures. One million Syrian refugee laborers are expected to contribute 4% of the Turkish GDP in 2028, despite holding 1.2% of the population. As the Turkish financial future continues to seem hopeless, there is a growing consensus that changes need to be made. Integrating migrants into both the domestic culture and labor market creates economic growth and long-term financial stability. Migrants and refugees may not have the same legal status, but their positive effect on the Turkish economy is the same. By filling labor gaps and financing social programs Turkish migrants and refugees will be able to slowly aid an economic recovery, improving the economy for both foreign and native workers.
Turkey must adopt a forward-thinking ideology that looks to use the social and economic potential of its refugee and migrant populations. This starts by addressing brain drain and maintaining top talent through career development opportunities and investments into necessary industries. At the same time, low-skill migrants must be able to work and obtain proper licensing which benefits foreign and native workers as previously established—additionally, entrepreneurialism and migrant employment indirectly fund the necessary native programs to keep everyone happy and healthy. Also, creating a path toward legalization allows migrants to reap the benefits they help create. Allowing migrants to have a voice in political elections and access to the programs they help fund creates positive public opinion in the migrant community. This can be done through an easier pathway to citizenship for refugees and migrants that do their part in society. Lastly, it's in the best interest of billions to have a successful Turkish migration system. International cooperation, funding, and strategic management allow for multilateral assistance and a way toward long-standing economic and migratory stability in Turkey. Recent developments may impact the quantity of Syrian refugees, but the message remains the same. By emphasizing and accepting the essential role that migrants and refugees play in the economy, Turkey can begin to reverse its economic crisis and move towards long-term social and financial prosperity.
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