By Jude Caruso
DOI: 10.57912/25542238
Understanding the Supranational
Supranational organizations have been the foundation of the dreams of prominent politicians for hundreds of years. Creating a layer above the nation-state, supranational organizations, after centuries of the global geopolitical order relying on the Westphalian System, have been revolutionary in moving towards worldwide cooperation. While the UN is undoubtedly the most prominent supranational organization, its present idleness and geopolitical inefficiency make it a poor example of the supranational shift’s success. Instead of global supranational organizations like the UN, states have joined and strengthened regional and cultural supranationals over the last several decades. Based on social and economic realities, regional supranationals have demonstrated themselves as a vital tool in a globalized world, both economically and geopolitically. Most prominent are the European Union (EU), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and the African Union, which have grown, thrived, or both over the last few decades.
While involvement in supranational organizations is often the subject of polarized debate in United States domestic politics, the U.S. is nevertheless a member of many supranational organizations, most prominently NATO and the USMCA. However, these organizations differ in their structure from the typical regional supranationals because, while the former organizations are essentially comprehensive and equal in the sense that several economically and geopolitically similar nations lead them, the U.S. is the bulwark contributor in the majority of its agreements. The American perspective on supranationals has been compartmentalized, wherein NATO is viewed solely as a military organization and USMCA as a commercial agreement. Compartmentalization prevents an organization from ever growing beyond its original purpose, as the EU did when it evolved from the European Coal and Steel Community. When approaching supranational organizations such as the EU or other similarly strategic organizations, it will be essential for US diplomatic policy to take what has been learned from interactions with the EU and other supranationals and work on a set policy and goal on how to interact with them in the future, as they inevitably impact the future of international relations.
Supranationals Today
The Russian Invasion is often credited with immediately bolstering European cohesion in the face of the first major European war since the Second World War. If Ukraine surrenders, the European Union’s border with Russia, or at the very least Russian proxies, would double. Such a development would drive European re-armament and reliance on American defensive capabilities. In contrast, a total Russian failure would bolster the European Union's ability to pursue its own interests, not as an American ally but as an American partner. Ukraine would likely join the EU, and its victory would be seen as a European one. Moreover, the EU would have to change its structure to bring Ukraine into it, becoming more cohesive and developing European strategic and defensive capabilities. The EU has long been the trailblazer for the future of supranational organizations. The war's outcome could determine whether supranationals belong within global superpowers’ spheres of influence or have the potential to become global players themselves.
Supranationals as a Force in the Second Cold War
American officials often denounce the existence of a Second Cold War, but the recent spike in what could be defined as proxy wars and the growing tension between the US, its allies, China, and its situational allies is getting harder to define as anything less. Economic warfare is a key part of Cold War tactics, and supranationals provide a prime opportunity for any party to pull states into their sphere of influence. The Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an economic project with many EU signatories, though only one is in Western Europe: Portugal. Born out of the Chinese economic boom, the BRI was seen as a formidable threat to American global financial domination. However, after post-Covid economic stagnation, the only other major European signatory, Italy, left the Belt and Road initiative. Chinese investments in strategically important locations are viewed as dangerous by the United States, which views them as a form of “debt trap diplomacy.” China has successfully, seemingly entirely through economic action, created a “String of Pearls” around its continental rival India. Beijing’s utilization of its economic weight has made the United States wary of Chinese investment into allied strategic locations. To counter this similar situation unfolding within the economies of its traditional allies, the United States has frequently threatened to sanction Portugal. Portuguese politicians have not infrequently floated the idea of the EU pursuing closer relations with the African Union, ASEAN, and the MERCOSUR (a South American economic pact) as an alternative for being within the American or Chinese sphere of influence, pursuing a role for supranationals as their own global actors, rather than as organizations of small states within global power’s spheres of influence.
Supranationals Tomorrow
Beyond the Great-Power politics and diplomatic maneuvering, the notion of supranationals as not just pawns, but independent actors, sets the stage for the European Union to become the paradigm for growing supranationals. The European Union is the inspiration for all contemporary supranationals. The once martial continent, endlessly warring with itself, demonstrated through the post-war foundation of the Union the prosperity supranationalism brings, in contrast to the desolation that came to Europe at least once a century in the form of massive conflict. How the EU goes, so too will the African Union, which will be the guiding path for any future South American union. EU political groups are often classified by their opinion of the increasing cohesion of the European Union as either Euroskeptics or Europhiles. Euroskeptics favor their nation over the EU, while Europhiles want increased EU cohesion. Better known as the "Federal Dilemma", the issue concerns whether the European project can lead to a unified European state or if it will revert to nationalism. The African Union and others may use the EU's path as a blueprint, potentially benefiting from free movement and supranational governance, and if the EU chooses perhaps eventual federalization.
While the United States has steady allies in the European Union, Chinese investment into a less cohesive but quickly developing and growing African Union may offset this advantage. At the current rate, should China survive its population and economic crisis, this would place a possibly extremely powerful African Union firmly within the Chinese sphere of influence during this century, offsetting the global scales of power. In post-colonial hotbeds, such as West Africa, African youth are showing extreme hostility towards Western influence and cordiality to Chinese and Russian influence and investments due to negligence and exploitation by Western corporations and the permanent scar of colonization. Conversely, contested ownership over the South China Sea has driven many ASEAN nations into defensive and economic pacts with the United States. Yet, just as many have similar agreements with China.
American Supranational Policy
Broadly, to avoid conflict and maintain globalist trade, the U.S. must focus on spreading its influence on new regions like West Africa and South America while working to strengthen and replenish diplomatic relations between traditional allies. Elevated cooperation and focus with and on supranationals could help address the long-term consequences of imperialism and, at the same time, guarantee American security.
Supranationals could be the successor to the Westphalian system, ushering in a new age of regional and international economic and cultural integration. The need for the US to adapt its foreign policy to a changing global landscape where supranationals play a pivotal role cannot be stressed enough. If the United States is to evolve with the world, it must view supranationals as partners to be developed and tools for stabilizing the developing world.
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