By Jacob Kamen
Europe has long depended on cheap Russian natural gas to power everything from factories to homes, but in the wake of the Ukraine war, Russia has cut its exports to Europe dramatically. It began to limit its gas exports in the summer of 2021 which officials from the US and EU claimed was due to Russia’s political strategy of dividing the West. The recent cuts can be attributed to similar purposes which have been stressed tenfold due to the ongoing violent conflict. Moscow has used energy as a geopolitical tool throughout the past decade to carve a sphere of influence in the former Soviet bloc and divide the West. Experts have warned that Europe needs to prepare for zero Russian gas this winter. This plays a greater role in the West’s transition to renewable energies. In the short-term, the US must export fossil fuel energy to Europe to take up Russia’s mantle while Europe bolsters its renewable energy sources for the sake of its long-term energy security.
Since coming to power in 1999, Russian President Vladmir Putin has remained an enigma for most Western nations. He has guided Russia on a dominantly anti-West agenda, reaching a breaking point with his invasion of Ukraine, a sovereign nation, justified by his grievances with NATO’s and the EU’s increasing influence and support there. This capitalizes on eight years of fighting within Ukraine against eastern Russian-backed separatist groups in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Such instability and meddling produced a hostile political climate observable at the beginning of 2022, prior to the invasion. Following Putin’s announcement of “a special military operation” against Ukraine on February 24, the EU, UK, US and a slew of other countries imposed unprecedented sanctions against Russia. This has had intense reverberations back in the West. Putin has used the conflict in Ukraine as a proxy within a greater dispute with Europe and the US.
The most observable aspect of Russian influence in Europe is their supply of natural gas. Moscow ordered the halting of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline on August 31, causing gas shipments to plummet 89% from a year ago. As Russia supplies 40% of Europe’s natural gas, this figure becomes incredibly significant. Natural gas is currently an extremely important resource for Europe in generating electricity, heating homes, and powering a range of industrial processes. As winter inches closer, it becomes imperative to have a secure supply of gas. European nations have started preemptive measures to prevent power outages such as French President Emmanuel Macron calling for a 10% reduction in the nation’s energy consumption over two years and a deliberate shutdown of consumption to help cover supply deficits. Similar policies have been announced in other prominent EU member states such as Germany and Spain.
Europe has long prided itself on its climate change action, marked by the European Climate Law which aims for Europe’s “economy and society to become climate-neutral by 2050.” However, the cut-off of Russian natural gas has caused a spike in the declining coal industry, increasing demand 14%. Proprietors of the energy industry express the view that coal is needed now to provide energy in the short term but renewables are necessary in the long-term. The current energy crisis is causing a setback in EU climate response policy, one that has been championed as an example for the world to follow. This demonstrates a break from previous European leadership on climate policy.
In the US, President Biden announced in March that the US would ban Russian natural gas and coal as part of the economic sanctions placed on Moscow directly after the start of the Ukraine invasion. This accounted for less than 10% of the nation’s energy supply; nearly six times less than that of Europe. In August, Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, allocating $386 billion for energy and climate change programs over the next decade, focusing on hastening the switch to renewable energies domestically. The act will increase US energy independence as imports of fossil fuels become discouraged. This will diminish the ability of foreign actors such as Russia to manipulate US markets by withholding energy resources, such as has been occurring in Europe.
Energy independence in the US has been easier to achieve, however, due to the vast resources present within the country already. These resources can also help boost the US economy in the short-term through exporting fossil fuels to Europe, potentially increasing its global influence. Such a temporary arrangement would benefit both parties and facilitate cooperation, an outcome opposite of Putin’s intentions. Lessened Russian gas will cause a greater shift towards renewable energy production in Europe as a means to achieve energy independence, similar to that of the US. Energy production through solar, wind, hydro, and others made up 22.1% of the EU’s total in 2020. Expansion of these would be ideal for Europe. Nuclear energy is also seen as an economically preferable alternative energy source, most prominently established in France. These trends will have significant impacts on future foreign relations as the ability to use energy for political gains diminishes. Therefore, it becomes geopolitically, in addition to environmentally, advantageous to cut fossil fuel reliance.
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