By Alexander Wall
The relationship between the United States and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has undergone significant changes in the last decade, with disputes over economics and security. However, the most important difference is the rise of China and its dynamic relations with the GCC, involving oil and other energy resources that Beijing desperately needs. China’s closer cooperation with the GCC has left the U.S. on the outside looking in. Overall, the GCC member-states’ relationship with China will exacerbate differences in priorities and goals between the United States and the GCC members.
China’s increased demand for oil has forced it to focus on strengthening relationships with the oil-rich nations of the GCC. Many members are currently among China's top ten oil suppliers, or are quickly rising on those lists. This has strained the U.S.-GCC partnership as the U.S. becomes more committed to combating Chinese soft power and influence around the world. With the Chinese economy having experienced major struggles during the COVID-19 pandemic, new growth will necessitate a closer relationship with the nations that provide the vital oil China needs. Oil consumption rose during 2015, and has since continued to reach higher levels. To guarantee oil supply and facilitate their expanding partnership, the GCC and China will likely work together to improve the ease of transactions between buyers and sellers. This has negative implications on the United States, as the Biden administration has framed U.S.-China relations as the most critical partnership for the U.S. to strategically navigate. These conflicting interests have forced many GCC nations to view their global exchanges as bilateral and binary, either working with the U.S. or China, due to the rising tensions between the great powers. The GCC’s hesitation to work with the U.S. is not without reason, as the U.S. has shifted priorities elsewhere and strives to become less dependent on GCC oil, leaving some countries concerned about the promise of U.S. protection from a hostile threat such as Iran. The directional change has deeply worried GCC members and compelled the Gulf States to look elsewhere for alliance security and a market for their oil.
The second facet threatening to tear the U.S. and GCC apart is member states' cooperation with China that the U.S. cannot replicate. Most notably, China has portrayed itself to many GCC states as a reliable partner who can have a tacit agreement to look the other way on each other’s human rights abuses. This poses a challenge to the U.S. because its current relationship with the GCC, particularly Saudi Arabia, has been criticized for failing to hold Saudi Arabia accountable for its many human rights violations. Therefore, attempting to replicate the bargain China offers to the GCC is untenable. The U.S. cannot and should not offer that; instead, the U.S. needs to assert its place back in the region, as many acknowledge the risks of the United States’ departure from Gulf engagement to focus on other political objectives. Additionally, the U.S. can construct strong security agreements with the GCC to counter shared threats posed by Iran’s rising nuclear capabilities and threats to members within the GCC. Combatting shared threats was what originally brought the U.S. and GCC together.
However, it cannot be understated that China has a considerable influence over the region. It is imperative that the U.S. needs to be more aware of maintaining its presence, especially as U.S.-China tensions spill over into many disparate corners of the world. The GCC is positioned to become the next theater of competition on the global stage due to its strategic significance and relationship with great powers. The alliance offers presented by China and the U.S. are emphasized with varying action points. Chinese partnership underlines economic development and non-interference, while the U.S. offers security. The differences in GCC member state priorities could divide them, which could seriously undermine the GCC’s stability as a representation of shared interests.
With the increasing economic cooperation with China having affected the Gulf Cooperation Council and its relationship with the United States, it has become increasingly clear that the state of cooperation needs a readjustment. U.S.-GCC relations are facing its most formidable challenge with a rising China becoming more invested in the region. However, it is still true that the GCC and U.S. rely on each other as guarantors of oil supplies, as well as a unified front against mutual threats like Iran. The nature of this relationship has been dynamic, but the partnership must adjust its strategies and priorities to prevent future fragmentation.
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