By. Alec Hennessy
DOI: 10.57912/28063229
In Europe, the biggest reaction to the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine has been fear that Russia will not stop at Ukraine and that they could potentially find themselves at war. Subsequently, since 2022, NATO has realized the Russian threat and begun rearming their militaries. Perhaps no country has been more committed to European security and NATO rearmament than Poland. Poland has committed itself to building up a substantial European ground army through imports of modern technology and domestic production, as well as increasing the size and support for the military throughout the country in the wake of the 2022 Russian invasion. The country’s rearmament provides an excellent example of what kind of policy fellow NATO members, specifically in Europe, can do to improve their defenses.
Beginning at the end of the Cold War, many European NATO members repeatedly cut defense spending to below the required 2% of GDP as agreed upon for all NATO members in a 2006 defense ministers meeting, under the belief that they were in a new age of safety and that large-scale wars would not come to Europe again. Throughout most of the 1990s to the 2010s, European NATO members consistently fell behind in capability as military equipment was decommissioned and military sizes shrunk with the belief that threats like Russia could be reasoned with and be politically and economically integrated into Europe. After nearly 30 years of neglect and underfunding, the curtain came crashing down when, on February 24th, 2022, Russia started its full-scale invasion of Ukraine to annex the country fully into Russia.
Immediately after the full-scale Russian invasion, NATO rallied around Ukraine and quickly supplied different military systems of all types to Ukraine, from Javelin ATGMs, HIMARS MLRSs, and Bayraktar drones, among others systems. However, in Poland, much of the largest and first military aid packages would come in the form of older Soviet stockpiles donated from Western reserves. Soviet tanks, IFVs, and fighter jets quickly left warehouses and headed for the Ukrainian battlefield. Today, Poland retains little Soviet weapons and has largely rebranded its military. This was done to help Ukraine but also to let the Polish military build a new military and rearm itself from ground zero.
With much of its older equipment gone, Poland invested heavily in buying new systems and prioritized the development of a strong army. The most significant systems Poland has invested in are hundreds of ground-based tanks, such as the Abrams and Black Panther, and new American and South Korean artillery and air defenses. Polish rearmament doesn’t just include buying foreign weapons but also creating its own domestic weapons industry. The largest quantity of systems soon to be made in Poland include 1000 Borsuk infantry fighting vehicles, as well as an emphasis on greater munitions production to produce enough spare ammunition for these systems in a potential war, as the war in Ukraine has shown having a large stockpile is essential for keeping system operational. This rearmament differs from most other NATO countries and typical NATO doctrine, which emphasizes airpower. While Poland has bought some Patriot air defenses andF-35s, it’s rearmament focuses on building up the most capable land army in Europe. This is especially apparent when looking at Polish military recruitment and in which branch the most personnel will be.
The 2022 Polish Homeland Defense Act sets how Poland seeks to “double the size of the armed forces.” Poland plans to enlist 300,000 soldiers in the armed forces within the near future, growing from 216,000 in 2024. Of these troops, around250,000 will be active soldiers, and 50,000 will serve in the territorial defense forces. Poland is again emphasizing the importance of a sizable army for defense, with minimal personnel being recruited into the navy and air force. This expansion is also in the face of efforts to increase the presence and positive vision of the military in society. The Polish government has recently started new initiatives, including holidays with the army and civilian volunteer programs, to give basic military training and make the military more positive in the public mindset post-2022 invasion.
The strategy behind the choices made in the Polish rearmament is crafted by learning from the experiences of how the Ukraine War is being waged. The Polish emphasis on main battle tanks, long-range artillery, and army attack helicopters is evidence that this lesson from the Ukraine war has been learned that having a strong land army is vital to national defense. Another critical lesson of Polish rearmament learned from Ukraine is the importance of munitions stockpiles and domestic munitions production. Throughout the Russo-Ukraine war, Ukraine has attempted to build up a domestic ammunition production industry for artillery shells and small arms. Still, it relies on sporadic weapons shipments from NATO, which causes periodic shell hunger. Poland’s rearmament focuses on having enough weapons and ammunition to last in a long-term conflict and be prepared to rapidly scale up as is needed in a war. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorsky stated, “We are only now rediscovering that you need millions of shells. You need volumes of low-tech stuff as well.” The last lesson learned from Ukraine in Poland is drone production. Drones proved themselves repeatedly in Ukraine, and the Polish military seeks to build up domestic and international drone purchases to position itself as a leader in future military drone technology.
Rearmament is emphasized within the rest of NATO but is not always carried out efficiently. Countries such as Canada and the UK have implemented military cuts since the Russian invasion. In contrast, while others like France and Germany have been slow to increase overall weapons production and development. Poland and other eastern European countries have largely led the charge on rearmament with these countries spending more on defense as a percentage of GDP on average than the west. Polish rearmament can prove to be a helpful example to other countries of how NATO countries can efficiently and cost-effectively rearm. The proposed 2025 Polish military budget is expected to rapidly increase. Poland has been able to make more out of this budget by building up a cheaper domestic arms production industry instead of always buying foreign-made weapons. This plan for domestic arms production is built upon decommissioning or donating old systems to Ukraine so the Polish Military can focus on maintaining a leaner set of more effective weapons. The improved civilian-military relations of Polish rearmament are another policy that could see positive effects in Western countries. Programs like holidays with soldiers and more public outreach can improve the public perceptions of the military and allow for greater civilian-military cooperation.
Since the Russian invasion, Polish rearmament has represented a complete and total shift in national policy. The country has always been wary of Russian aggression in Europe but is now positioning itself to serve as the most potent land army in Europe. This has been achieved through purchasing modern equipment, building up a modern defense industry, and increasing the army through public outreach. Poland now stands as NATO’s eastern fortress facing Russia and has become committed to recognizing Russian aggression with strength.
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