By: Maximilian Mooradian
DOI: 10.57912/27270381
Since the conclusion of World War II, Japan has been constitutionally prohibited from maintaining a conventional military force. However, the country now faces an increasing level of tension with China. While Japan has incrementally increased its defense spending by 1-3 percent since 2014, over the past several years, a notable shift occurred in December 2022. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, recognizing the escalating threat, approved a record-breaking 26.3% increase in defense spending totaling 51.4 billion USD. The increased funding is not intended to build Japan’s military might for offensive capabilities but rather to strengthen its overall defense.
An increasingly popular argument argues in favor of allowing Japan to establish a more proactive defense force, not only to prepare for the potential threat of a Chinese attack but also to defend Taiwan and other allies in the Indo-Pacific region. Such a shift would necessitate a coordinated consensus among the United States, South Korea, the Philippines, Japan’s politicians, and their people to amend Article 9 of Japan's constitution. This revision would allow Tokyo to adopt a more assertive defense posture, alleviating certain restrictions imposed by its pacifist constitution while still upholding its core principle of renouncing war.
Modern Challenges of Japan's Peaceful Constitution
Japan’s new constitution after WW2 came with many changes, most notably Article 9, which stated that “Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.” However, the new constitution did not mandate Japan to remain entirely defenseless, ultimately leading to the establishment of the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) in 1954. Japan subsequently concentrated on developing a defensive force, focused on protecting its borders against both direct and indirect threats, thereby preserving peace and ensuring the nation's independence. Over the years, there have been various "reinterpretations" of Article 9. A significant shift occurred in 2015 under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who allowed for a reinterpretation of Article 9 to permit Japan to exercise the right of collective self-defense. This reinterpretation enables the Self-Defense Forces to come to the defense of vital Japanese allies if Japan’s survival is threatened, thereby expanding Japan’s defensive role within the constraints of its constitution.
While these changes have been positive steps forward, Article 9 of the Constitution still restricts Japan from engaging in collective self-defense without limitations tied to its immediate survival. Reinterpreting this article to allow collective self-defense in scenarios where inaction could threaten Japan's sovereignty would enable the country to more actively support its allies, such as the United States, in defense efforts, including those related to Taiwan. This reinterpretation would align Japan's defense capabilities with its evolving security environment, allowing for greater strategic flexibility in regional defense initiatives.
Senkaku/Diaoyu Island Threat
Regarding Japan’s defense strategy, their focus seems to be on defending the five islands in the Senkaku island chain since the Chinese Government, most prominently President Xi-Jinping claimed that these islands have been a part of Chinese territory since the conclusion of World War 2. While the Senkaku Islands hold historical significance for China, their greater importance lies in their strategic location in the East China Sea. Control over these islands would grant China significant influence over shipping lanes that are vital for global trade, particularly for Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Additionally, gaining control of the Senkaku islands would bolster China's regional dominance, extending its military and geopolitical influence in East Asia and increasing its leverage in the broader contest over maritime resources and strategic territories. Japan has disputed these claims and has put significant resources into repelling an attack by establishing the Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade in 2018, with the members of this unit comprising the first marine force activated since the Second World War. The unit’s primary mission is to conduct amphibious operations to defend Japan’s remote islands from China and is trained to conduct amphibious assaults, reconnaissance, and raids to project power and quickly respond to a Chinese attack.
Reservations
The support of neighboring countries, such as South Korea, the Philippines, other Asian partners, and China’s presumed outrage could pose a significant challenge to this initiative, particularly concerning the Japanese development of their defense capabilities. This hesitancy is deeply rooted in historical grievances stemming from World War II, during which Imperial Japan committed numerous atrocities across Asia, especially in China, including the exploitation of comfort women, cultural suppression, mass civilian executions, torture, and the invasion and occupation of their territories. Despite these historical tensions, Japan's relations with South Korea and the Philippines have markedly improved in recent years. In August 2023, the United States, Japan, and South Korea convened at Camp David to discuss trilateral security cooperation, resulting in agreements on conducting annual trilateral military exercises, establishing a trilateral hotline, and enhancing supply chain resilience to counter Chinese economic coercion. Similarly, in February 2023, during the visit of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to Tokyo, Japan, and the Philippines signed a Reciprocal Access Agreement to facilitate more frequent military exercises and streamline procedures for the entry and deployment of troops and trade between the two countries in response to China’s growing aggression against the Philippines.
Despite the improvement in Japan's relationships with its Western Asian allies, the current relationship between China and Japan remains complex. On the one hand, the two countries are economically intertwined, with China being Japan's top trading partner while Tokyo is progressively strengthening its security alliance with the United States. When Japan passed the 2015 reinterpretation of its constitution, China's Foreign Ministry accused Japan of militarizing with the intent to abandon its post-war commitment to peace. China would likely respond similarly to future reinterpretations, potentially imposing economic and diplomatic repercussions in Japan. Despite historical grievances, Japan's improved relationships with South Korea, the Philippines, and other U.S. allies in Asia suggest that these countries may support a more flexible Japanese defense posture, as they all face the shared threat of China's rising influence. On the other hand, China would likely take measures to deter Japan from pursuing further reinterpretations, as such moves could significantly undermine China's ambitions to reclaim Taiwan by increasing the likelihood of Japanese intervention.
Another obstacle to reinstatement is securing approval from both houses of the National Diet, Japan’s legislative body, where a two-thirds majority is required to pass the initiative.
The most recent instance of this occurrence was in 2015, under the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)-Komeito (NKP) coalition, which held a two-thirds majority in the National Diet. The challenge lies in garnering the support of the Komeito party, which has traditionally adopted a more pacifist stance compared to the Liberal Democratic Party. Nonetheless, the new Komeito leader, Keiichi Ishii, voted in favor of the 2015 reinterpretation of Japan's collective self-defense rights, signaling the potential for cooperation and raising optimism that the new initiative could gain the necessary backing. The LDP must effectively communicate to Ishii and the rest of his party that China has openly declared its intent to invade Japan’s islands. There is no certainty that an invasion would conclude with the seizure of the islands. The example of Vladimir Putin's broader ambitions to invade additional countries if successful in his goal of capturing Ukraine demonstrates how, in a similar scenario, Japan’s mainland could become the next target following the seizure of the Senkaku Islands. Given China’s assertive rhetoric promising a reunification of Taiwan and its potential success in a successful invasion of Taiwan, Japan faces a credible and immediate threat to its sovereignty. This is why a new reinterpretation of Article 9 is essential to allow Japan to participate in collective self-defense operations alongside the United States to prevent both the fall of Taiwan and the possible seizure of Japanese territory.
Balancing Peace with Security
Japan stands at a critical juncture where its security environment demands a reassessment of its defense policies. While Japan remains committed to its pacifist constitution, the need for a more proactive defense force has become increasingly evident. Amending Article 9 to allow for greater strategic flexibility would enable Japan to better protect its interests and allies in the Indo-Pacific without renouncing its fundamental commitment to peace. As Japan navigates these challenges, the support of its people, political consensus, and cooperation with international partners will be essential in shaping a defense posture that is both effective and aligned with its longstanding values.
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