By: Catherine Grau
DOI: 10.57912/27342282
Nayib Bukele has quickly become a household name in Latin America. The self-proclaimed “world’s coolest dictator,” and “philosopher king” leads the smallest country in continental America, but his influence stretches far beyond his borders. Never polling below 75%, CID Gallup reported that his pre-2024 reelection campaign held him at 92% approval, polling twice as well in foreign polls as other politicians in their own countries. The cult following around Bukele is an international phenomenon, leaving regional leaders scrambling as they try to replicate his successful iron-fisted ‘mano dura’ policies against transnational criminal actors within the area. As Bukele’s shadow stretches longer and farther throughout the region, the future is uncertain. How far will the President of El Salvador go to expand his power in the Northern Triangle? Will the international community bend to his will?
The mara gangs based in El Salvador have held unchecked power in the Northern Triangle –Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras– for the past two decades. In 2012, the United States State Department estimated that these three countries were home to an estimated 85,000 active gang members. In 2015, all three countries ranked in the top five most dangerous in the Western Hemisphere, while the city of San Pedro Sula, Honduras and the entire nation of El Salvador competed for the title of ‘Murder Capital of the World.’
Bukele began secret negotiations with the maras to lower crime after his 2019 inauguration, but his international fame catapulted when this deal fell apart. In March of 2022, El Salvador marked its bloodiest weekend in the decades since their civil war, when the most prolific gangs–Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) and Barrio 18–indiscriminately murdered 87 people. Immediately, Bukele ordered a ‘State of Exception’ throughout the country, suspending constitutional rights and imprisoning anyone suspected of gang ties without due process. Two years later, the sweeping crackdowns have incarcerated 2% of the country’s population and decreased the homicide rate by 33.5 percentage points to 4.5/100,000, cementing Bukele’s overwhelming support.
Bukele’s suppression of civil liberties was well received by the populace. After decades of civil wars, poverty, and corrupt governments, citizens of the Northern Triangle were willing to exchange their rights for peace and prosperity. An AmericasBarometer study revealed that over half of Latin Americans polled would forfeit the right to vote for a reliable income and essential services. The public’s willingness to forgo constitutional rights when promised progress could be a significant deciding factor for voting patterns and future governments in the Americas. Bukele fully understands the ramifications of this sentiment and is using it to actively grow his power and influence beyond his borders.
His quest for regional soft power began shortly after his inauguration. After Hurricane Eta hit the Northern Triangle in 2020, supplies stamped with the Salvadoran coat-of-arms arrived in impoverished Honduran and Guatemalan communities regardless of animosity between leaders. It was an open secret that Bukele and former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández did not see eye-to-eye. The Hernández administration was corrupt, slow moving, and did not meet the needs of its people during the hurricane or Covid-19 crises. At the height of Covid-19, Honduran mayors pleaded to Bukele for help and immediately received 34,000 vaccines. Proving his adaptability and strategic diplomacy with his neighbors, Bukele deftly sidestepped critics who claimed he was trying to humiliate Hernández and asserted that he was simply being a good neighbor. Ignoring international skepticism, Bukele won the support of his Honduran neighbors by succeeding where their government failed.
In 2022, the progressive Xiomara Castro succeeded Hernández in Honduras. After seeing Bukele’s success, she decided to follow suit, declaring a ‘State of Exception’ in areas with the highest crime rates. Incarceration rates soared and civil rights vanished in clear emulation of Bukele. Castro claimed this action was necessary due to Hernández’s corruption and failures, but most agreed her promise to build an island penal colony and reactive policy building was a short-sighted imitation of her neighbor. Many Hondurans support her efforts, but doubt Castro’s ability to make change. Partially impeded by the difference in political structure between the two states, Castro’s executive power is limited in ways that Bukele has shaken off. Castro’s approval rating reflects public doubt, although her replication of Bukele bolsters her support, she doesn’t inspire the same devotion as her neighbor. A strongman doesn’t concern himself with equals, but Bukele’s unique success might absolve him of that threat.
Castro’s middling success doesn’t disprove the strategy coined as ‘Bukeleism.’ Much of Latin America’s corrupt governments have enforced cyclical violence, poverty, and nepotism for decades, and people are desperate for economic and political security. Bukele’s landslide 2024 reelection is only the most recent reflection of Latin American attraction to anti-establishment outsiders fighting for the national interest.
Despite Bukele’s popularity, not every regional leader is inclined to follow suit. The recent election of Bernardo Arévalo in neighboring Guatemala proves that Bukele isn’t the only anti-establishment way forward. Inaugurated in January 2024, Arévalo demonstrates that it is possible to undermine the status quo without wielding an iron fist. Beginning second-to-last in the polls, he placed second overall in the first round of elections. His candidacy was a direct challenge to the ‘Bukele method,’ a tactic that his final opponent pledged to implement. Like Bukele and Castro, he won on promises to combat corruption and improve public resources. One of Arévalo’s first acts as president was to dismantle security barriers near government buildings to invite his people closer to their government, marking a stark difference between himself and his neighbors despite their platforms.
Although most Guatemalans are hopeful about Arévalo, many still yearn for the safety that a strongman like Bukele promises to bring. The two presidents do not share much in the way of ideology. Bukele–ever aware of public opinion and opportunities to gain influence–hasn’t let that stop him from exerting soft power across the border. He has made sure to be seen donating supplies during national disasters, meeting with Guatemalan security forces to address transnational crime, and extraditing criminals to serve harsher penalties in El Salvador; all while backing Arévalo’s legitimacy in a contested election.
Bukele has cast a strategic shadow over his neighbors. In Honduras, Castro has thrown her full weight behind ‘Bukeleism,’ seeking credibility from a public alignment with his name and agenda. A dependable and charitable neighbor, Bukele’s administration has delivered safety and security to the poorest Honduran communities during different crises, arriving neatly stamped with the Salvadoran coat-of-arms reminding everyone who to thank. Arévalo isn’t keen on developing the same relationship, but Bukele is content to play the long game in Guatemala. If Arévalo’s divided government fails, Bukele will have been an example of what could have–should have–been done. Selflessly, Bukele will have given aid to the Guatemalan people when their own government couldn’t organize itself. If Arévalo succeeds, Bukele successfully compromised and crossed the political aisle with administrations who didn’t align with his own ideology.
Bukele’s strategic diplomacy has destined him for regional dominance. In his 2024 speech to the United Nations, he crowed, “In El Salvador we prioritized the security of our honest citizens over the comfort of criminals. Some say we have put thousands in prison, but the reality is that we have set millions free.” Bukele is a mastermind regarding public image. U.N. representatives clap politely, but the citizens of Latin America scream his name and beg him to lead their own countries. As a critic of Bukele wrote in concession, “What is democracy if there’s no food?…What is the rule of law if you live in a neighborhood filled with gangs?” His popularity and international renown prove that the price he asks is one that many are more than willing to pay.
Nayib Bukele’s success is built on more than just policy. In Latin America, his name is synonymous with power. A wise leader would consider him a cautious ally and a dangerous enemy. His curated loyalty grants him more leeway than any other president, and direct opposition could cost another the support of their country. Bukele’s prominence introduces great risk to the Northern Triangle. He is ambitious, calculating, but patient. He isn’t afraid to use force, and his appetite for power appears yet unsated. For now, if surrounding leaders want to maintain their power they must dance to his tune. But when dealing with a strongman it is always important to remember that he will never be interested in leaving room for an equal.
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