By: Chris Stockburger
DOI: 10.57912/27198225
In late July, despite the promise of a free and fair election, Venezuelan President Nickolas Maduro illegitimately claimed victory in the country's national election, despite widespread evidence of election fraud and interference, with the apparent winner being his opponent, Edmundo Gonzalez. Despite International condemnation of the fraudulent results, the Venezuelan Supreme Court certified Maduro’s win, legitimizing his win and subsequent oppressive actions against his rivals.
While the United States, European Union, and over 50 other nations signed a joint statement denouncing the results and reinforcing their stance that Maduro’s win was illegitimate, Maduro’s allies were just as quick to call the election free and fair, undermining democracy in the southern hemisphere and legitimizing a dictator. Somewhere in the middle are a few countries that could have the most influence in this crisis. The United States, in defense of democratic values and human rights, must work with these nations to increase the global diplomatic and economic pressure on Maduro to step aside.
Maduro, who took over Venezuela after the death of his predecessor Hugo Chavez in 2013, has overseen Venezuela’stransformation from one of the wealthiest countries in South America, to one of the poorest. In addition to his economic mismanagement, with the inflation of the Venezuelan Bolivar at one point reaching over 130,000% in 2018 alone, Maduro is accused by the United Nations of mass human rights atrocities, including the arrests, murders, and disappearances of thousands of Venezuelans and political opponents every single year.
Despite attempts spanning multiple Presidential administrations to force Maduro out of office, U.S. foreign policy has been ineffective at forcing Maduro out of office. Under the Trump Administration, the United States attempted to strongarm Maduro through strict economic sanctions, especially on oil, to force Maduro out of power. Trump’s unilateral “maximum pressure” approach failed to remove Maduro, but effectively caused the collapse of the Venezuelan economy, forcing millions of Venezuelans to flee the country into neighboring Latin American countries, with hundreds of thousands reaching the United States.
Under the Biden Administration, these sanctions persisted until 2023, when the Biden administration agreed to ease sanctions for 6 months in return for a promise to hold free and fair elections in 2024. These sanctions were reimposed in April due to Maduro’s crackdown on leading opposition candidates, military threats towards neighboring Guyana, and his failure to uphold international agreements. In the wake of the fraudulent July election, the Biden administration has continued to levy sanctions against Venezuelan officials, and even seizing assets, including Maduro’s Presidential plane.
What nearly 8 years of U.S. foreign policy has proven is that the United States alone cannot squeeze Maduro from power. For a diplomatic and economic response to be effective, a multilateral global diplomatic and economic response is needed to give Maduro no other option but to step down. Maduro’s defenders would be quick to support him, however, in the face of this response, with China giving tens of billions of dollars in loans and economic support to Venezuela as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Russia providing primarily military and arms support. Despite this, recent support from Venezuela’s traditional allies is at an all-time low. Longtime ally Cuba remains a resource burden for Venezuela. Caracas sends tens of thousands of barrels of oil to their communist allies in Havana on a daily basis, putting great pressure on reserves. This has many consequences. The need to sustain the Cuban oil market, while maintaining its own has caused the above-mentioned Guyana controversy, further isolating Carcas from regional and global actors. Under Cuba’s current economic standing, it would be unable to support a Maduro regime under immense pressure. While Iran is politically, militarily, and economically linked with Caracas, Iranian relations have been strained in the past few months due to Maduro’s failure to comply with the terms of an oil deal between the two nations. In addition, flaring tensions in the Middle East and at home create the possibility that Iran is unable to fully support Maduro in the face of an international coalition.
That leaves a few key players who are not quite on either side for various political and economic reasons. Although non-aligned, any official state interaction with the regime is significant, especially under the current political and economic strain the regime has faced and will continue to bear. One of the most surprising of these “middle ground” states is Turkey. The NATO ally has continued recent efforts to exponentially increase economic ties with Venezuela, with the two countries agreeing to ramp up trade from $800 million to $3 billion dollars just this year. Turkey has also outwardly criticized U.S. sanctions against Venezuela, with Turkey’s Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan stating in May that Turkey will continue to stand “firmly against unilateral sanctions on Venezuela”. For a multilateral, international response to be effective, the U.S. must convince Turkey to not only support U.S. efforts to uphold democratic values, but it must also take an active role in squeezing Maduro from power.
Another crucial regional partner that the U.S. must continue to work with is Brazil. When Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took over from outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro, who had maintained a Trump-like hardline approach to Venezuela, Lula instigated relations with Maduro. From calling accusations of Venezuela’s human rights abuses “narratives from detractors”, to refusing to condemn Maduro’s threats to invade Guyana, it appeared as though the trend of warming Venezuela-Brazil relations would continue to accelerate. However, even the latest election results have hampered Lula’s affection for Maduro. While he has ruled out breaking diplomatic relations, Lula has refused to recognize Maduro’s fraudulent victory, even calling for a new set of elections; a concept backed by President Biden. If the U.S. can continue to pressure a key regional actor to join the anti-Maduro bloc, it would do wonders for the movement's viability and likelihood of success.
The United States must continue not only working with traditional allies it must now also prioritize getting middle-ground actors to join the multilateral movement against Maduro. Venezuela is in a critical time in its history, where the chance of a return to democratic rule is the highest it may be for decades. Furthermore, failure to remove Maduro risks fuming the flames of Venezuela’s migrant crisis, with nearly 1/3 of citizens considering fleeing Venezuela if Maduro remains in power. The U.S. must encourage these middle partners, such as Turkey and Brazil, to join the multilateral coalition of dozens of nations attempting to diplomatically and economically leverage Maduro to step down to return Venezuela to a thriving democratic powerhouse its citizens dream of and deserve.
Comments