By Kai Suherwan
The late President Franklin D Roosevelt once proclaimed that the United States must be “the great arsenal of democracy.” He gave this speech in December of 1940, almost a year before the U.S. entered the Second World War. I firmly believe that this proclamation still rings true to this day, especially in the case of Taiwan. Since Xi Jinping’s rise to power, threats from the mainland against Taiwan have greatly increased. As the People's Liberation Army (PLA) continues to grow its Naval and Marine forces, the Chinese government has reaffirmed its intention to take Taiwan by force. As the spokesman for the Chinese Defense Ministry has said, “We warn those 'Taiwan independence' elements - those who play with fire will burn themselves, and Taiwan independence means war." It is irrelevant to debate whether Taiwan is a “part of China” or an independent state. What matters is that the Chinese are willing to threaten the livelihood of 23.5 million people. It is indisputable that Taiwan is an island under siege. Therefore I believe that the U.S. should support Taiwan militarily both in peacetime and in the event of a war with China.
The U.S. should care about the sovereignty of Taiwan as it has both a moral obligation to support democracy in Taiwan as well as a strategic interest in the region. Freedom House, a non-governmental organization that assesses political freedom and human rights, has given Taiwan a score of 94/100, citing that a “vibrant and competitive democratic system has allowed three peaceful transfers of power between rival parties since 2000, and protections for civil liberties are generally robust.” When looking at these factors, it’s no surprise that I hold the opinion that the U.S. and Taiwan would be great ideological allies, akin to the relationship between the United Kingdom and the U.S. In defending Taiwan the U.S. would regain the confidence of the free world, after the political controversies of the last few years, and will once again be looked upon as the defender of democracy.
On the strategic side of things, the South China Sea is an important area for global trade, with 20% to 33% of global trade flowing through the region. China has claimed a large portion of the South China Sea, known as the 9-dash line. They use this demarcation to claim ownership over a vast area of ocean that overlaps the exclusive economic zone claims of nations such as the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Vietnam, and the entire island of Taiwan. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, China has also been conducting naval exercises within the disputed territories. These actions take place alongside the continued construction of military and industrial outposts on artificial islands in disputed waters within the South China Sea. Because of these actions, the U.S. should support Taiwan as having a U.S. military presence there would not only serve as a deterrence to the PLA but also give the U.S. a base of operations closer to the disputed areas of the South China Sea. The South China Sea falls under the Indo-Pacific Command of the U.S. military and plays a key part in keeping the region free and open to maritime trade. With Taiwan’s strategic position in the South China Sea, the U.S. would also be able to have better reconnaissance as well as logistical support for its peace and wartime operations in the South China Sea. These advantages would also contribute to the defense of Taiwan in the case of a military invasion by China.
In the event that China invades Taiwan, the U.S. response must be swift and decisive. While the PLA outnumbers the Taiwanese Armed Forces in all, if not most of its military capability, war is hardly ever so simple. Factors such as morale, geography, and outside powers quickly shift wars in favor of different sides. The people of Taiwan have the extreme moral resolve and preparations for a Chinese invasion have been taking place since 1947. In contrast, the Chinese have only recently started to take the prospect of an invasion of Taiwan seriously. As Taiwan is an island, the goal of the air and sea forces of the U.S. should be to destroy not only PLA Navy ships but also their logistical supply lines. That would mean the targeting of ports and military shipping that would be used to support the PLA invasion of Taiwan. The U.S. should also commit ground forces to the defense of Taiwan to bolster the island’s defenses in the case that the PLA is able to secure a beachhead. These measures should give the Taiwanese much-needed time and firepower to hold out against a Chinese invasion until peace is brokered or international pressure forces the Chinese to withdraw.
In peacetime, the U.S. should continue to supply Taiwan with modern means to defend itself. The Biden administration has already approved the sale of military equipment worth $750 million, and if these sales continue, it would give the Taiwanese a better chance against the PLA. These arms sales would also serve as a deterrence to the PLA. An invasion of Taiwan would be extremely costly to them, and with more weapons from the U.S. in the hands of the Taiwanese, the projected casualty numbers for the PLA would be higher than without. The U.S. must also step up its military cooperation with the Taiwanese to match the Chinese presence in the region. Writing for Foreign Affairs, Oriana Skylar Mastro of Stanford University claims that “the PLA wants to make its presence in the Taiwan Strait routine. The more common its activities there become, the harder it will be for the U.S. to determine when a Chinese attack is imminent." Because of this, the U.S., Taiwan, and any other willing regional or international partners should conduct military exercises around Taiwan to make their presence as common if not more than China’s.
If the U.S. chooses to assist Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, the U.S. risks losing the lives of its soldiers, sailors, marines, and airmen that they send to fight. While this is a hard pill to swallow, the alternative would be to allow the Chinese to impose their will on the millions of people that live in Taiwan. The U.S. would lose a great partner for democracy in Asia as well as lose the confidence of democratic nations in the region, such as Japan and South Korea, who have both had issues with China in the last few years. A Chinese victory in Taiwan would give China complete hegemony over the South China Sea and the power to block global trade in that region. This would, in turn, cause many potential partners in the region to look to China instead of the U.S., lowering the U.S. from its place on the international stage.
Through the numerous threats against the Taiwanese, the Chinese government proves its willingness to impose its will on the Taiwanese people by force. We have seen what the Chinese Government has done to those who oppose their rule in Hong Kong, Tibet, and Xinjiang. The U.S. cannot let this happen in Taiwan. Any military action against Taiwan must be met by the full force of not only the U.S. Military but by an international coalition of nations that stand for democracy. Therefore, the U.S. should do all that it can so that Taiwan remains a bastion of democracy in Asia.
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